PC prices in 2026: why refresh timing matters more than the cycle

What the analysts published, in order

TrendForce reported in January 2026 that first-quarter notebook DRAM contract prices were up more than 80 percent quarter on quarter and solid-state drive prices about 70 percent. Gartner followed in February with its 2026 outlook: combined DRAM and SSD prices up 130 percent by the end of the year, average PC prices up 17 percent against 2025, memory's share of a PC bill of materials rising from 16 percent to a peak of 23 percent, the sub-$500 PC segment disappearing by 2028, and business PC lifetimes rising 15 percent as buyers hold devices longer.

IDC said in March 2026 that the era of bargain-priced PCs is behind us for now, forecasting unit shipments down 11.3 percent for the year while market value rose 1.6 percent to $274 billion, with some price easing only beginning in 2028. In June it forecast average selling price growth of 17 percent for 2026 and no meaningful memory relief before the end of 2027. TrendForce in July expected a further 13 to 18 percent rise in conventional DRAM contract prices and 10 to 15 percent in NAND for the third quarter, with retail notebook prices rising across the board.

The third quarter made it concrete

The third-quarter shipment reports landed within a week of each other in October 2026. IDC counted 62.7 million units, down 20.1 percent year over year and 9.1 percent from the previous quarter, and attributed it to inventory pulled forward in the first half ahead of memory price rises plus supply constraints; its analyst said prices will remain elevated and nowhere near a year ago. Omdia counted 58.1 million, down 21.2 percent, and reported that the cost share of DRAM and SSDs in a PC had risen from a typical 15 percent to nearly 40 percent, with price increases of more than four times; it forecast a further 24 percent fall in the fourth quarter and 7 percent for 2027. Gartner counted 55.4 million, down 22.4 percent, at volumes last seen in early 2023, and noted that DRAM costs had surged five times year over year in the second quarter.

HP's finance chief told investors in February that memory and storage would rise to about 35 percent of PC production cost this year from roughly 15 to 18 percent in the prior quarter, and that the company was taking targeted pricing actions. The analysts differ on units by a few million; on the direction of prices they do not differ at all.

What a 17 percent price rise does to a refresh calendar

Take a fleet with a four-year calendar and a flat budget. At prices 17 percent higher, the same budget buys about 14.5 percent fewer devices. The calendar still lists every device that crossed the line as due. Something gives, and in most organizations it gives in one of two bad ways: the whole list is deferred a year and the risk moves to the service desk, or the list is funded and another budget line pays for it.

The alternative is to use the price rise as the reason to choose. A device the calendar has due that the evidence says is healthy is now worth 17 percent more to keep. An over-specified workstation that can fill a due seat avoids a purchase that costs 17 percent more. The difference a right-size move saves has grown with the prices of both classes. Gartner's observation that businesses are focusing spend on targeted investments rather than broad deployments is this logic at market scale.

Timing within the year

The analysts agree that relief is not close: IDC puts meaningful memory relief after the end of 2027 and price easing at 2028, and Omdia expects shipments to keep falling into 2027. Waiting for a better price is not a strategy for a device that cannot take Windows 11, whose commercial Extended Security Updates cost $183 to enroll now and end for good on 10 October 2028. It is a reasonable strategy for a healthy device with two years of class life left, which should not be in the purchase plan at all.

Phasing matters more in a rising market. A replace cohort spread across four quarters locks in some purchases at today's price and gives procurement the chance to negotiate the later ones against the memory curve. A plan that buys everything in the fourth quarter because the budget year ends buys at whatever that quarter costs.

Ask vendors for two things on every quote: the validity period, and the memory and storage configuration priced as its own line. The first tells you how long a price holds while the replace cohort is approved. The second shows where the increase lands, which is what makes a 16 GB against 32 GB decision per class an explicit one instead of a default carried over from the last order.

What this means for the refresh decision

Cycle length was always a proxy for the question that matters, which is whether this device, for this user, should be replaced this quarter. In a flat price market the proxy was cheap to be wrong about. In 2026 it is not. The four verdicts answer the real question per device, and the savings floor counts each deferred or avoided purchase at your own prices, which is where the 17 percent shows up as money rather than as a headline.

Our sample report shows the format on a fictional fleet, with the class prices listed so you can see where a price change lands. The initial report runs it on your own fleet from an export, and if you give us your 2026 quotes by class, the assumptions table uses them instead of the defaults.

Common questions